How the Shortage-Tension Index is built.

The formula

Computed per Region (SA3) × Specialty. A cell reads e.g. 3.2 vac/nurse — 3.2 open roles for every available practitioner. Where supply isn't yet monitored, we show a Demand-only velocity (new roles/week), never a fabricated ratio.

The Monitored Universe — the denominator

Every absolute figure is scoped to an enumerated Monitored Universe: the set of sources we actually watch for a region. That denominator is what makes the Index quotable. Where coverage is thin, a cell degrades to an Estimate badge rather than a false-precise number.

Derived signals

On top of the Index, HealthAspect derives the signals a hiring decision-maker actually needs. In preview these are illustrative models coupled to the demo Index; the same formulas run on live data once the pipeline is switched on.

Pay benchmark

Median annual base by role, with the market p25–p75 band and the award / EBA floor. The “to compete” target = median × (1 + a tension-driven premium), so pay and shortage stay coupled — no premium is shown for a cell without an Index value.

Competitiveness scorecard

A 0–100 composite per facility — shortage tension (40%), rival demand (25%), supply depth (25%), hiring volume (10%) — graded Severe → Favourable, with every sub-score exposed so it is never a black box.

Time-to-fill

Median days a role sits open — the specialty’s national baseline stretched by local tension — shown against the national benchmark. The trend follows demand momentum (rising demand ⇒ vacancies age slower).

Lead-edge / storm-front

An early-warning score for cells that are heating and advancing toward critical, with a projected weeks-to-critical if momentum holds. Cooling cells never raise a false alarm.

Sources & attribution

Legally-safe ingestion only — government portals, employer ATS, and government open data. No banned job-board scraping. CC-BY sources are attributed; non-commercial-licensed content is not surfaced.